                          ˿µϣ20080801գ

08.08.01, ƼŰ칫ҷӳϴѧ־ȺȨ˵Ϊ
08.08.01, רѧͼĿĿ
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08.08.01, acetoneϲѧһ˶ʿоʱ䰲뵽о
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ƼŰ칫ҷӳϴѧ־ȺȨ˵Ϊ

To: ƼŰ칫 

칫Ҹλ쵼:

дʸͨһׯ͵Ĳ۲۵ѧ¼

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, дһƵ·Ƶ. ϾϴѧϾǹѵ
ĵ־, Ⱥ, ȨУ˻ҵĽ: 
ûͬ£

ұдĽΪǵѵ棻
ұдĽΪѵĽ̲.
ȥ104£ַʽȫһЩСѲݳ

ȥյԹڵĵʺ͵绰ѺѧԱ־
, Ⱥ, ͺȨУΪʾķ߿־Ϊ
ԺƸڣѧߣȫͶģȫܳ꣬ѧƴͷˣȻ
ͷѧԣ

ΪȥµȨУϾǹѵĵĸˣ 
Уڳһ̬ ѳ־ںȺڵĽԼĽ
ġѵ޷͡

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֮ꡱĸֱ2008515֮ǰû
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2008514ٴεʸǣ־2008515ջӦ8
ͣȫƱ磨ĸ

522ٴεʸ־ڣƱ磬2008523
ջصʸң˴ĸǱ֪ʶȨ
ȫĹηǡ

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ԤıġȺڡæ֮ϯһΣȥ9
46գϾǹѵĵĽ, ȥ96ϻܵҽס
ľƵҡ̡һЩ⡣

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1Ҹǵ""ұдĽѵ棬ȫ
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ǻÿһҳ ϴѧ缯ɵ·оı־
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Ҫ, ҿ԰Щĸ.(ʵ־ڽ523ո
ĵѳ.ָ־ڵĵżǲο)

־, Ⱥ, ȨУΪصģ磺

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ǡԻٳǡͬжǵΪ

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ˡ 

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ڰеÿһ衣

лл!


Richard Chi-Hsi Li
5501 Murton Place, 
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USA



ʦʦУ

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2008514

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ǽ֧ڹڶ࣬ð࣬ͬʱӭϾѧ;ٰѵ࣬
ϣٽϵ

־
2008-05-15


ʦ:

İ˵û˵. İ˵޷Ҫ˵, ʲôҲû. 
?
ظһ, :
ҿǵĹ棬ҵĽٴѵ棬ȫճ
ڹڿõǵĽ̲ģ֤ʵҵĽΪѵ
̲ģӢ֮⣬ȫճܹ255ҳһ
 ǻÿһҳ ϴѧ缯ɵ·оı־һ
ǧСʱĽǵĲƲ
 ǻصҪѵѧԱǩ֣岻⴫

ǵʵ̫, ̫, ǵݼ! 
"ܲҪǶͨϰȷʽԹҺ͵ļչṩ
ƶ" Ϲϵ.
"ΪҹƵɵ·ķչЩ"Ϲϵ.
"г"Ϲϵ. (õг?)
ϴ?

RICHARDL 
2008522


𾴵ʿ,ã
յEMAILǸ£
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־
2008-05-23

ϴѧƵ缯ɵ·о
Ͼ¥2
ʱࣺ210096

ʵַ
ϴѧ¥У¥411

绰: 025 83793303-8808
绰/: 025 83792882
E-mail: zgwang@seu.edu.cn
Web: http://iroi.seu.edu.cn/ 

(XYS20080801)

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ѧͼĿĿ

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ҩ

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̨ûʲôöɿüҩƱҿ
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ȻǲܵƾҩΥжҩƷǼҩô׿
ʵĲʵʣǸʲôأ˵רŴҩ
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оǶôΪ˿ԼȥжϣҸ˵νڿ϶ΪԼ
Ǯ

ƻ˵ĵطмг˺üνרΪҩƷ˵ϸ
汻һһλһλͷĹԺԺʿҪ˼˵ 
ҽѧ̹ԺԺʿͷαǵġйԺԺʿ˺ö࣬
googleϼҽѧԺȻһҲûСкܶ 
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ɡ

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ϲѧһ˶ʿоʱ䰲뵽о

acetone

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ϲѧ2005ѧѧ˶ʿĴ簲űԴϲѧоԺҳص
(http://yjshome.ncu.edu.cn/News_View.asp?NewsID=297)

ʱ䰲ţ20071223һ죬ϲѧѧѧֱ𶼰21ѧ
˶ʿĴ磬ʮֳԾǣ21ѧĴ綼23һɡ

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ŵѧظmediaview

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𱱺ֵĲ߼ı

ߣμ

: !

ҸĶ˱ֵı, Ϊǲ߼! ɴҲɿ
йԱ:

,(պѧ)ܳꡱֽڲҪ
¡˵,һƪ·ǵҪΪַ! ˼˵Ʊ
, , ʵƵʵӦһ𷢱, ͬ
, һϾһƪ,ֻ޵ͼܷ! Ϊʲô? ҿ
»۵Ŀѧ, ΪϾͺ÷!?Щ˵ʲô? , Ҫ
, ɱѽ!

, вû˵ѧʵж, ж೤ʱ. ѧʵʱ
㷢µû߼ϵ! ˵˷һѧ!
"ѧĭ"!

, ע: μӻӦù, μӻĻ,ر
SCI,ѵͿԷƵ?治ΪʲôΪԼ˱! 
ǲ߼ıѽ!

֪, ÿ˶ܷ, , ǿ˵˵Ʒ
!

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ʩһǷȫְȫʱع

ɽͯ

Ľйѧ72730ڻɽСһ
˾廪ѧʩһڡйѧԺԺ
ʿڽʩһʱרᵽʩһȫְȫʱعһ
ڶṹѧҽлʩһݽĿڵһȥ
ữøPP2AĽṹûоݾCell־
3ƪʩһ˵Ǵ2004˹ٴѧһ3
ɵоСɵġңʩһᵽ8·ݵ˹ٴѧμ
СһԱChen YuĲʿĴ硣Chen Yuҵ˹
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ԡ

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һѧͷйˮѧԺƺˮооԱ׽

   2008ڡˮойƼڿĺڿȫ
17ƪģп׽ΪͨѶ15ƪһһƪڶ
һƪɼˮƽ֮ߣӰ֮󣬸ÿΪҾٰ죬ϣ
ȫ첢ʾڡлл

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Ұд

ߣbingo

һ̨й¼ڲ24Сʱ5ƪģⲻ
ҿʼʦĽȻʦᵽ4ǰƪйܡı
ֿǵ4ǰڵĲʵڲУʦѾˣҾԸ£
ʱΪʦ׫дһƪ4ǰĲġ

NB»
Ұ @ 2004-9-12 23:22:15 Ķ ͨ : Ϊ

һֱãܹǷҵȼ֮һˡɵ
ܳɱȻһЩҲҪߵıܼ»һ
ƹˡ

ںõġһѡָйطŵ˻ῪĻʽϸ
ݵıܹϻ˴Ѫйýڴ˹ؼʱ¶ϸڣΥ
ҵй֮ӡ˾֣Ȼܹ˴Ѫô
ýõˣ͸ţʵֻǷ֤˿ĻʽܹûʲôѪȻ
ܻ˲Ǯ

ͬʱںӦ֪õϢҵй档

дͻȻ֣д·ˡߡô
»أǣҾд

NC»
Ұ @ 2004-9-12 23:22:15 Ķ ͨ : Ϊ

һֱãܹǷҵȼ֮һˡɵ
ܳɱȻһЩҲҪߵıܼ»һ
ƹˡ

ںõġһѡָйطŵ˻ῪĻʽϸ
ݵıܹϻ˴Ѫйýڴ˹ؼʱ¶ϸڣΥ
ҵй֮ӡȫ޳ۣȫý嶼Ϊȫ
Сرһͯľʱ򣬾Ȼй
ýңʵ̫аˣⲻΪŰġ

ͬʱںӦ֪ΪΪҵй档
йҵей档

ϣί˰&#8226;˵ˣҲ
йرйýǰйذ˻ῪĻʽƬθе߿
ѾôǰһλΥӢ߻ؼˡ

˳ͷ̸ֻܳͷйý壬йý嵨Ҳȫ
˵˾ҪƲйˡ


֪˶óϷʡôҾ˵㲻ϷʵĻ4
ǰ»ƪŵԲԣΪԡɵӰ϶纫
SBS̨ôһһƵߵϢ󣬶4ǰ
ƵôС

»ƪԣȻSBS̨Ϸ
߼ƺǣ»ʲôôҾʧȥSBS̨Ȩ
Ǻֵ߼߼˼ʲôʸPX̣

һԱ֮ƨɾԴαƨŤֻ
ƣǷǵĳ̶ȡ

˳˵һ䣬һ治ôϲı¡

(XYS20080801)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys-reader.org)

ķ

ߣƼ

⼸,Ϊڲ˷ҽ,λѹ,
˹ҽһ.

,ƵıѾ̫.ҽ,˾ϰ,ĵ,
ʲôҽ֧,۵㶼˵.

ͨ"ʵ",óҽЧĽ;ΪѧǽĽ
Ʒ,ҽܿδõ֤;"ʵǼΨһ
׼".

Ӧ˵,Щ۵ٻܹԱ۵.һͲô
.һλŮһӵ,"",,˵
"ӽʲôҽ,й":)

⼸˴ٵ,ռѧ,ҾöΪ
йյս.ҽÿ˶йϵ.

йô˶ҩ?Ի˭ΪǸ?Ϊֹ,
û˵˭ΪҩԻ˵õ⳥:)

Ϊÿй˵ս,ȴòǵ,õֻ
,ֻá,ֻʹ.

³ѸԼ߽֮,Χ˶ǿ.

Ƿӵı,лı!

(XYS20080801)

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ǵĲ

ߣ¹

ҽѧԺУѧѧ̲кûжԳĴлר
Դ󲿷ٴҽԳйصٴⲢûк⡣
ڡһӵжθϸĽܣͨߣǶ
ٴҽйصҲкܴҪܳ
лйصٴ漰١θйص֢״ﻼ߳
ľԭȻЩ֢״ȴʾصĲ䣬಻Ҫθ
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罻ӶЩڻⷽš



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̴١ӿǻԾԾʵ壬ڽʳˮ
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ͨų߻оȽö֮߻᲻壬
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ʱȳ廹塣

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ֻθǻͨųӶԵĸ͡
Ͷ෢֮ڣʱӳ֢״ᡣ

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Ļ߿ԾѵʶĽʳܣȻǿųַͨ
ʽм򵥵ķá˵ӦҲַͨʽ

Ƣ/ۺ֢

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࣬ӡʹĸоǶԹ
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ϸ͡ʹҿɷɢءǰʱ֢״
ʹۺָ֢۹壬ϸʹΪԵ
סס񲡡ĤסθҩкִͨҪ
ʱ೦ʹųЩ֢״Ի⡣



˵θȻ200mlÿų600-700ml
ÿСʱųһС100mlһƽÿ10-14Σɶ25Ρ
ųһǳͻģԼʶ಻Խ
صвӰ罻ʱҪƣĲƶ
ȲʳǼ١Ҫ档ǲٵ̼ˮ
Դ˲࣬԰ʳĳɴסоڿе
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ţζֱӿڷһЩ̿ƼҲͬá

ղۺ֢

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ص̼ˮЩʳ᳦ϸֽ⣬̼
ȣٴ֣Ϊղۺ֢ʼֻȵ
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12.5gǣ൱һ250mlţ̣֢26%ǰһʱ俴
ӪһѵҴʱӪԱͨܵҴṩ˴ţ̣Ҵ
ߺ˺󶼳˸ʹкӪȻǺģûпǵҹ˵
̶ܳȣʱṩһЩεϿܸЩ
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屬ը

ǻͼ飬鶯ϸлͼ飬ǻе
Щ嶼ǳϸлֽδ̼ˮǵײġԼ40%
 ƨкм飬Ϊʲô˿Բȴ飿
ԭ򻹲ȫӦúͳϸйϵڡƨԴﵽ 
44%Դﵽ30%ȼ㡣ڳ߳½
иƵʱǻеĿȼ壬𻨿ܻᷢը´
ס¶೦õҩ䱾һ̼ˮױϸ
ֽⷢͣȼ壬ԲҪƵĳ׼
˳ֵʶٴѾķһ
û˵



Ҳǳ֢״൱һֻ߹۲첻ӣܺ
ӵйأLw5612Ѿ˽ܣͲ׸ˡо
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һоǸΧܾȷķӦоǻе
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10cmʱΧһ㣬ҹ˯ʱΧСһ㡣˵CT
׼ȷһ㣬øÿCTͼ񣬼
ͿԸЩϼⶨĴС
ƳԱо֢״֮ĹϵԽ
弤飨Gas Challenge TestͨǿײܵС򳦵ڳ
ע壬ͨŲһռų壬ȥų
ڳͨƹעٶȺųٶȿԿ
ݻǣplethysmographyķ
Ȼһ޴ļ鷽豸ȽϸӣʹõĲǺܶࡣ

(XYS20080801)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys-reader.org)

¹ʵʵࡪ԰̷һĵĲ

 

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и߷գϣǴһҽ¹ȡӦеĽѵ

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Ҫļ⡣

һҽƹҽԱгֵ׼ҩһ
Ҫü⣬Ҫʱظ飬Զžҽ¹ʶ
˺档ȡѵø׼˵ҽ
¹ʶֹ¹ʺټ

ҽλҽҿӦ֪ر
ʩͲһʮҪλҶҽؾԭ򡱣
дʮ˷ѽ⣺죬λΪ˲˵İȫ˳ƿ
׼ʹãû뵽ȴһƿЦһȫҩ
ôҩյʱ򣬴Цһʱ
дѡ׼ڹϱضҪгЧĹ
ʩǸԭκ˶Ӧüס

ο
Ҷң<Ŵ֮>   
http://www.hxqw.com/wxxsgl/xdwx/200710/33519.html

(XYS20080801)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys-reader.org)

˻ῪĻʽŹ۸

ߣľ

730˰˻ῪĻʽĲţ̸롣

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Ҳܵıص㣬һЩźֱĳ棬
Ӣۡ͡ʮĻ档ֽǿб仯Ч
ãټ𺳶տ졣ֵһǱ͵ƹ仯
ļãʫ续

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˳ǱϳܶȺ͵Ժԡ
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´̨Ϊʲôǰೡһ̨Ӵӳ
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׼ȷ""ĺйض֪ɷMusic()ǲ
ġͬʱ36̨ϣ36Ůͬõй
ôΪʲôҪͬһأ⣬߿ƼûҪ
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ҲûüĿҪȫԱϱõĵƹ⣬˵ĵƲ
еЦǣ̨ϣȵطֲڶͳһװ־Ըߣ
ͳһֵ硢˹ġΧӫȣָӹڻƣ
ЩӽĿĵ԰ŵĹ˵"¼һǾչз"

Ȼڿѵ̫ں˺ĿĻʽ
ܵ˵ܽܵġڱ⣬֪д㲻йܡ
βţܹмʮȥ⼸ϵرҲͦġƱд
ŲյֻȻֻ
ջֻڿƵʱ򣬲Ż־ԸȰһ¡˳ν
̨й¼ҲͲˡ

(XYS20080801)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys-reader.org)

Ԥ׼ȷ

Ѱ

˿ϵݻΪһִΪѧ̨ʱ
򣬴ҲҪʵԡҲϲѧʽۣҵķУ
ԡֵԤϷΪСȴϲΪһ
ƪ֤ҶʼĶ֮

ѰԸ˶ˣԾдлԴñӣ
ѰѧʶˮƽһЧĹʽ߿վѰ
ˡļϣǿЦʲôϤĶһδذ
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Ѱ񲻳˵֣ܶථ۵ġ֡δض֮ķ
գһֶԸʡķ̡

ϳУ޷ǡɽˡͬ־롰Ұèͬ־⣬
˲֣⿴ܼ򵥣ǵȲϳˣ˭֪һɸ˽
ⷴˡôô

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Ķ

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͸ʣÿ104꣬ԶP죩40%Ҫööࡣ
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лҡ

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֤ԶԵģΪ߲ˣͿܳνһƷ
һָ˭֤Ըǿ˭Ľ۸⵽ɡ

ļ

ļʵǳ򵥣ֱˮƽ̫ˣһ裬
ʱȵյˮû˻顣
Ѱ˶ϵꡣ

ͼһǾȷֲ㣬ҲΪǺڰϵϾͿķ۱ʻң
άΪάΪʣһάǲģӦú⣺

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ĺڰϰ׷ʱˮƽϵĺڰˢ¶
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Ŀƽˣٶںڰˢ˶û
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ȡڰˢˢңǿ죬ֻҪˢ䣬
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ˢ׷۵

˵ͼһͼ

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ˮƽȴֱ̫Կܱܵռ
٣Ӧú⡣



˳˵һ䣬ڡֵԤϷжһЩĽǻ
֮٣ΪЩضﾳеĸǹ̶ֵ
ϣԭﾳ塣ڸ˵Ϊĸ
ʣҲʣʵļ㣬ĳ
̶ǻе

ѧеDeterminismۣ˵κ¼ķ
ֽΪ޵κ¼ķһӼϣ100%ؽ
ķɳ֮Ӧ¼ķ޷ó
ȥֻܻͣԵز²¼ķȻǲ²⣬޷Ԥ
ΨһԤģǻظȡõĻʡʣǾͲܶ
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ԣνǶ¼Ӿ̶ȣȫ
Ǿͱҵ100%Ʋ¼ķ
νɣζ޷ֻظȡñݶ¼ķ
ȫ䷢Ļ
ߵ˾һˣԵǰ⡣joysongҵķ
ͣر仯Ϊ˵ԭָʣõ100%׼ȷԤ
ˣʶ˵ĶͲˡJoysongĴ
ϵĴһģѧǾϸĶԲעͷ
ķ굶ļʱ˵80%׼ȷȣ˲38%׼ȷȣûʶ
׼ȷֻںһġ

ѧ߼ľΪʲôϰڱܷͼø㻵е
ʦ

ġԤ׼ȷ

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ͳѧǸʵӦϵչͨظʵѰڵıĹɣ
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ڻ໥ӡ֤һ˵ʵļֻ˼ά
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ѧ󲿷ĺ⣬ÿ⡣ʵɿ
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ʲĳ̶ȡԤ˵жģ
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Ҫ˽⡣Ҫ˽ǣԤĻʶ

˵˵ʵĿûֵԿѧ˵һ£ִ
ѧԤУļչԤ׼ȷо
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һӾ磬һλ̨ʦϲԱȡĹ
ˡԤ׼ȷǸ̨Ҫ뼸ǷϲԱȡ
רҵʦ

Ԥⲻ׼ôҲһԼڵԤ׼ȷȣȥһУ
Ԥ׼ȷȶΪ80-84%¶Ϊ47-61%¶Ϊ55-62%Щ
ͳǻԤһForecastWatchĹ˾ṩġ
Ԥ׼ȷԤǿȣǣ㣬Ϊ80-82%

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졣ԤǶԣǵ
࣬ǲȫƾɴ˲òڸģ͡ϣ
ʱҪ޴Ӱ졣

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689нУ仯ԤۺУΪԱ
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5±仯ƽ2϶ȣ6϶ȣԤ׼ȷƽ
1ȣֻ2ȡ˵̴ɽ͸Ԥȥ
Ԥ׼ȷΪ꣨ǣ85-90%һֻ80%
94-96%84-90%

ѡһ仯ҵĵط˵ıݵ˹
Уĩ5ƽ仯670϶ȣ634ȣԤ
ʵ´649ȣ674ȡϣȥԤ׼ȷ
ֻ50-51%ֻ42-44%Ԥϣ׼ȷΪ
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ϡ

ҲĵһԤ׼ȷȵĵ飬ǵ̨
Ԥ׼ȷ82-87%ң̨ͬ仯ƣԤ׼ȷ
ӶݼһԤϣƽ73%õForecastWatch
ûҵȷ׼ȷʵĶ壬ֻܲоожΪ
Pʵ

ôص80%׼ȷȲСʱԤ׼ȷ
ȡʵԤУСʱԤʱԤNowcasting
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׼ȷȿ϶ȴԤҪߡ԰¿ķ굶80%׼ȷʵǷסȻ
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һ׼ȷʻߵϧһʼ۵Ԥɾ͵
ˣ׼ȷҪ߹¼߸ʣȻԤģ;ͿסԵ
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ʹˣҸˣʣ׼ȷԤ86.3%
Ƕ˵Ԥ⡣ôһ׼ȷʽ֤أ
߷һսԤ׼ȷʣChallenge AccuracyҶ
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ӳ⣬ֻսԵĲ㡣ʲôӵ
أ

ͳƣԤ׼ȷȣеԤ50%󲿷ֻ50%
һ㣬2ϵԤӲһֱûʸΪ׼ȷô
ܣרԤⷴʣǰ̸ϵͳԤ
ԤǻڻԤ̶ܴ൱ڻع
ͳƷʣʵʷʣ˵ʵʷ
10%ôԤĻҲ10%ͳƷǰô
Ԥôأһּ鰩֤ĲԣĳѪҺɷ֣
ѪҺɷָ֢أûһڼⰩ֤ĲȺм
ʸ֢ȺеķһͳģԤĴһ
Դ󣬾ͻһԴΪ޶˵ġ

ͳģϤôԤ׼ȷʾһͳƲԻ
൱RҲģͿԽ͵ı仯¼Ԥ׼
ȷ¼Ԥ׼ȷʱץ׼ˣɴץһǧ
ɷһԤĻήͻҪԤ糬30%ĿʱԤ
׼˻꣬ôͿ¼ԤʣץеĽ׼
ˣͳģ͵ԤɱԤˮƽģ͵ˮƽ
ԤоУһǲֵġʵУص¼
ȻԤ׼˵ЧߣеʧҲ

صǰ۵ԤϣʵļٶӦǰѱʸʵͬ
ϵм㣬Ϊ걨籨һµģ׼ȷʡ

صԤ׼ȷȵ֪ԤԤҪ׼ȷ
֪ʶǣԤ⣬׼Ĳϣϣȴֱ
׼ԤⲻͬǣԤ׼ȷȳڷ仯Ȼ
ӣԤԽԽ׼ջﵽǵһʵϣԶ
Ԥ׼ȷʺ޽Ტ۵ġ

(XYS20080801)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys-reader.org)

MatthewsԤ



    MatthewsڡԤж׼һȤ⣺
Ԥ׼ȷΪ80%ʵʽĸΪ10%Ԥ꣬ôʵ
ĸǶ٣߸ۣ100
    
    110УԤ׼ȷԤе8ΣΪ
׼ȷΪ80%

    280%׼ȷͬʱҲζ20%Ĳ׼ȷʡֽ
ѣ90У18Ԥꡣ

    ԤʵĸΪ8/(8+18)ԼΪ30%ȷ
г±ɣ

                ʵ   ʵû
Ԥ        A         B
    Ԥû        C         D

    1ٻ: Recall=A/(A+C)*100%
    2ȷ: Precision=A/(A+B)*100%
    3ȷ: Accuracy=(A+D)/N*100%
    4鱨: Fallout=B/(B+D)*100%
    5: Error=(B+C)/N*100%, Error=1-Accuracy
    6©: Miss=C/(A+C), Miss=1-Recall

    еݣõ
                ʵ   ʵû
Ԥ        8         18
    Ԥû        2         72

    Ȼ1ǸA/(A+C)Ϊ80%õģ2ǸD/(B+D)Ϊ80%õģ
ǰ˵ٻΪ80%˵1-鱨Ϊ80%ֻ׼ȷΪ
80%û˵ʵڶ٣Matthews׼ȷʵָʲôأ
ֿԣ

    Aߵ׼ȷָAccuracy(A+D)/N
    ԭоõaccuracyaccurateȻaccuracy 
=(A+D)/(A+B+C+D)80%޷ƳA/(A+C)D/(B+D)80%۵ģ
±

                ʵ   ʵû
    Ԥ        5         15
    Ԥû        5         75
    ׼ȷΪ80%ٻΪ50%鱨Ϊ17%
    
    Bߵ׼ȷָRecallA/(A+C)
    ׼ȷָٻʣôõ1ûģȴ޷õߵĽ
2ˣA/(A+C)80%ζšB/(B+D)20%±
    
                ʵ   ʵû
Ԥ        8         45
    Ԥû        2         45
    鱨Ϊ50%ˣֻнһ趨鱨Ϊ20%ܵõ2
    
    Cߵ׼ȷʼָRecallA/(A+C)ָB/(B+D)
    ׼ȷ80%ͬʱʾٻʡ1-鱨ʶ80%ǽ1ͽ
2ܹ˳óˡҲв֮ABеۿԿ
ٻʣ1-鱨ʣһȣ趨ȣͬһ
ʡ׼ȷʡʾ׼ȷʡѧָָȷ
(A+D)/NyiminΪ׼ȷʣ⡣רҵߣ
˵òܣͨߣ˵òXYSϵ
ۣΪĶô
    
    ʵΪMatthewsƪ²ûдʲôʵԵĴֻǲ̫
ѣC˵߲ô棬Ҳܹ͹ȥʵ˵ģ
һֳΪbase-rate fallacyҲ˵¼
ꡪķʱϵ͵£Ԥʵ
ģһֿЧԤⷽȷԤû˴Ԥ
ˡ

    󣬶԰¿ķ굶СšۡѰйظĵλظ
й£

    ΪٻA/(A+C)Ļ¼ʣȻֻ©C/(A+C)
鱨B/(B+D)Ϊ¼ʺΪ1ٻA/(A+C)+©
C/(A+C)=1ν鱨B/(B+D)޹أ˼һ¡

    ԭ˵Robert MatthewsԭУʵ˵һ⣬
ԤٻΪ80%鱨Ϊ1-80%ʵĸʣȷʿΪ
30%ڰ˵λе©ʸΪ鱨ʣ鱨Ϊ
20%ܹõMatthewsĽ2ԼߵĽۣ

    ˣԭУҼȲǱҲҪʲôٻ+©=1
˵ҪõMatthewsĽۣҪõٻΪ80%鱨Ϊ1-80%
ȱһɡĸ׼ȷԼĥһ°ɡ
    
    10УԤ׼ȷԤе8ΣΪ׼
ȷΪ80%.仰ѵûѵʶ80%ָ
ľǡʵУ80%ȷǰԤꡱ𣿡
    
    ǰʹá׼ȷʡɻ⣬ABCѾ
ˣﲻ׸һλչѵĻԭĸô
ֻ˵дòڡ¿ѧҡһݴڿѧ־
ѵ߻ҪȥѧִȻٶ£clarityдĻ
Ҫ֮һ
    
    ҸеRobert MatthewsƪǷǳʵģȻʹõĶͨ
׵ĿԣýҲˣֻûӡ

    ΪߡýĶˡʹöǶܹ
νġ׼ȷʡָĸʣҲ޻˵ˣֻף
ƪǳʵġĿ£

    Сһ𸴣
    10УԤ׼ȷԤе8ΣΪ׼
ȷΪ80%Ѿǳȷָ80%׼ȷʾ˵P(Ԥ|
)=P(Ԥ|û)=0.8

    ֻ˵P(Ԥ|)=0.8ٻ=0.8ָܹ
P(Ԥ|û)=0.81-鱨=0.8ӦòԭġýĶ
ˡʹó۵İɣ

(XYS20080801)

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