                          ˿µϣ20080730գ

08.07.30, ӡһӵ
08.07.30, ܡϮ֮ǰľִͽ顷
08.07.30, blueseaͬͷ˼᲻Ҫ׳
08.07.30, һ޳ɡѵԴۡ
08.07.30, ԽԽйķɻ治һûƷ
08.07.30, ϼΪμɻ䵽Ϻ̨ȡ֤
08.07.30, ¿ڡҽѧ
08.07.30, ƾʵݡϾƾѧѧԺԺʿشϮ֮
08.07.30, 𸴡ϾƾѧѧԺԺʿشϮ
08.07.30, 񡶴𸴡пԺѧоŻоԱڹڿαݡ
08.07.30, ٺʥѧĹ
08.07.30, ִ¥ſǶͼ
08.07.30, ƤࡱǸʲôҩ
08.07.30, Ƽ¡ͬ±ҽ⡷
08.07.30, ӭ
08.07.30, СšСʱʵļ㡷
08.07.30, ۡڸ𸴰¿ķ굶
08.07.30, ѰԤϷ
08.07.30, joysongظǶѰ
08.07.30, ½ˮĿ

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys-reader.org)

                            һӵ

                            ӡ

    ˮԷʱ򣬲֪ͬʱҲÿͬʱҪ
´Լ23ĿʵڵĿҵһųȥ
ȻҪըˡҲΪǼȻغᣬϸӿ
ǻųȥʵȻ䶯ȥʳ
š䶯ֹͣˣǻͼ
ػۣǻᱻס̫Զ

    ̽ȥĿһ֣رеᱻܱ
ëϸѪաȿִʱʣµҪǵˡθ
ڷʳĻѧӦ̼ʣĿ
һθ䶯УɷָƶСݻ
ںϳɴݣյֱִŸԼһ
ۡų⣬ĴСȡųٶȺԼ
Ľ̶ȡĳɷҪǵͶ̼ûв
ɷ֣ͲζԳԵƨ

    ֵƨ졣ЩȽ١ͨٵԲ
岻ȥĿҲӦ壬
Ǵϸڷֽ͡ʳʱġϸڷ͹л
壬̼ûζҲǿĳɷ֣ͼ
飬Ҳûζǿȼգ壬Ǿζˡ

    ôζ嶼Щأһֱ1998꣬п
ѧҶо⡣ᰢ˹ҽѧĵ
оԱֱռ16ų塣Ϊȷųζ
壬ǰһϺ͵ϸһ200˰߶ֳ
15ǡռɫ׺ɷ֣Ȼ
е䷢̶ȡҪķɷ⣬
Ǽ򴼣òҶٴǼѣ
٣ʵе㡣

    ʹ㲻ԲȣҲ޷žекСһ
ּµĿ޹أҲµʳ޹ءϸ
ԼճҺеճףΪϸʳȻͻ
ѪҺʱѪҺеĶ̼Ҳй©ȥ

    κʱһ˵θڶдԼ150500壬
дԼ֮µĿ֮һϸġĳ
ЩסŲȥͻԽԽ࣬еĳ軼
ܻ3500塣һÿҪӸ714Σͷ
2002500ĴŮ˶࣬Ϊ
˽ʳȽ϶ࡣŮ˲ζĲֱȽŨֲ
ٵĶ̴ƽˡ

    Ϊ˼Ҳ뵽ڽʳʱעⲻҪ¿ô
Ľʵϻ⣬ԽʶҪ¿µĿ
ԽࡣȽϿеİ취ǱٳĳЩʳϸ
ͷֽӶζʳʳ޷Ĳ
֣ر࣬άء;ǡһ˵ʳ
άصءԸάʳƷܼ
ǸάʳƷ潡ڳȱάصʳƷᵼ±أ
ӻֱѪܼķա

    һּķǳҩ磬ڷö׻͡
̵ܼθĿѸٵںϳɴݣ
ȻͨôͨųȥȻڴвŲζ
ЧҪζ壬ڳԶࡢȫȵȺ;ǽ϶ʳ
֮ǰæ£øƼ屾ûø˵
ǣ˴ϸȥͿԼϸʳ
ӶĲһЩȱøţе
ǣЩǵ˴󳦣ϸֽ⣬Ҳ壬ܵ
кЩںţ֮ǰøƼͿԱ

    ųܵһ֡˸֮
죬ҽѯʻǷʼˣζ
ָԿʼʳˡ춼еڸĻ
ȴ˱壬ˡƨδ̫ܵˣ
Լ

2008.7.27.

й걨2008.7.30

(XYS20080730)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys-reader.org)

Ϯ֮ǰľִͽ



ϮӦõȷԺԺ󹫲¼ȫſ
۵ġǿϹϮδ֮ǰĸۣΪѱ
Ϊƽ·ɳ绤춼ЩΥܲŷΪѱ
һѴʹߣΪվɳ绤һ죬ɳ
Աɽʦ

ϮѾˣѾǸ˵񼫵ﷸκһ
Ҷ̵ġϮսǹҵķɺϮ
ôҵ񽫻ᴦڿֲıУͲƲ޷
ϡΪάľԼûзɱϣͲ
ָʲôɱϣ

ԶϮĵǾҪ֮Էġӹ˵ġ

Ŀǰ½Ϯ۷ӳǶļ
̬˼ά˵½ľ򲻴ˡ˵½ľɽʦ
жİ˶ֹµġǶ
ˣҲţΪҾͱǵ֤˵档

ġһžһòͷ˵ҪԷٵҹ绰
Ҽңſȣ˵ɳץҵʱѾ˯˲ۣ
ȥ񾭲º˵ҼȣϺһЩν
˷¾ʹһ𹥻ңЩ˻ӷϺ
ȨģҴӴӲͷƤ⳵ʱ
б·ɳľʻиԱĲ֮͡ú
ĸ˵ߵľʱֻõ죬˳ɤ
ӿпţӰľ׷¹ߵ龰һվԽš
øϽҶһСһʱҲսͷȻͶ
С䡣

ſˣһƬҵĽŲб·ɳ;ί
ΡһʣղŽأôֻһ
һ񾭲˵ĸ׺ö˵ûǸ
ߵСſĴ˵Сʲôˣҳ

XX˵ҵѡ

ҵʱͷҲճ޹ˣԼǸ¹߻
ƵģĲҳȥˡһһ׺˵˸


ĽҵĴҳ˺ü飬
ˣϳٲҾͰ߿ˡ
⺷ҲȥĻпĻᱻƵģ
̫ˣǾͿš

һʣʲôˣʲô֣ס

һһʮĸȭͷظһȭ

ʣôԴ˵ģ

˵־򡣡

˵ǵͬº;ίε˵ģXXĸ׺
⻹λӱĿˡ

˵Ҿʹˣôˣб·ɳXXX˵
ǵһȭ

ƽ͵˵ǲԵġ

׳ţ˵ȥҺˡ

˵һйزŷӳġ

ϵľ˵ˣͻؼȥɡҪˡ

ίҲ˵߰ɣˡûʲô£ؼҰɣô
ˡ

ȷʵҲûʲô£ͶXXĸ׺˵Ҿˡ

ڶ죬Ϻйα⽨пƳСʻҸ
飬˵бɳ˵ľ⽨кСԾ˵
Ҷִ㣬ܰɣ

̾˵ҪϹ˵ʲôҺƽһ
ҵֶˡʱһҲڱϣίҲڱϣXXĸ
סúͱҲڱϡ˼֤

⽨˵֪ܲ˭

˵֪֪˭Ҫ˭ܴô

⽨кС˵˵б·һƦåܶࡣɳ͵Ʀ
å򽻵ƽʱͺܴ󡣡ңúʹҪҪ
ȥҽ

˵ʱʹ˯һҲͺöˡ

⽨кС˵ǻദġΪӦô
á

˵ͲҪˣעˡǴң
ˣִˡ

йһüСѲйĻ㾯ˮƽ
˹άҲвġ˵ɽҲ
˶ԾѵԪΪ̫ˣ
˵ϰдҿԺܸĸǣһ
˱ùͱ˸ţֱ⳥һǧԪأ

ΪľִȻᱻ⳥޿ԾŲ
ž졣ΥֻԵ˼˼л𣬻
ΪԺΥִľʩ̺Ծ޿ԣ
ŦԼԺдԲܵһɵʮǹ
¾ܸúɵļﲻȨҲ
Ҫ㱩ڻǷġûҡ

첿˰ŵĺϷԷΪģ
طɷ˾ˣĻƻ

й½Ļ㾯󲻼ѣһʵʵҲҪϣ
ԷˡҲЩäĿΪѽкõһݺӵԭʮ
ȥˣŸĸ￪ţǿƽҪ͹ʽӹ죬ʿ
ߣҲߵɽʦж̵ˮƽعͷ˵
ɫݱɷɽʦж̵ĻҲǲȡġִʱ
Ӧ£Υؾܱ

Ҳ֪ζԴִʱľ¼
֪ľ첻ɽʦж̵Ľɫľǲ
ִʱеۺͷģۺͷǷŮ
һͬѧΪӽͨæķʢRoosevelt  avenue˽ͣ
쳭ƣǸ˵һԵġ
shut up 硣쵱Ͱʢһ
ŷ־֣һҹ

ΪгʣⱾھִ
Χܾش𾯲ѯʣ;ڴۣҳʮӣ
ѾɷݴǿԴġ۵춼ر
һ㡣

ĿǰϻõΪѲûо񲡣ѽΪ
ۣʻɱĸ죬
˵ȥǻɵʵѱɳ֮Źˣɳǲ
йŴ򹷡ưΥ鷢㡣

ҵľ飬ݸıҶϮ֮ǰ뾯ĳͻ
ΪȽϺĽǣ ·Ͼܾټ죬谭˽ͨʮ֮ã
ƽ·ɳɳѸǱףɳ
жʵڿȥǴ£߰ؽ˾ҡ

ʹҲǲܺصģأѵڶ첻ֱӾͻر
Щ˵ѵغ豻ˣ޻̸֮һӵغ豻˵ڶ
;𳵵ġҪ˵غ豻ˣغ豻ߵЩҲʹϺü
졣ϷлߴʱбߵغСԴ˶ġ
غʧȥֳǲһ飬Ҫ
İ

⻹Уѱ͵Բűѯʣʾ⳵ƾ֤
ɾˡһûзɵ˾Լ
ҲҴپǼʹ͵һгҲǸСò۵İ
ͥʸûУοƽִľ첻ͻȻ
ˣⲻڰԼʮӵִ󳹵ǰ

ҸΪĽǣѷ˾ĹΪݾ
¼ȷʵǺģɳʱƸſ񣬰ɳ
򶼽ˡһ¼ת⣬ѺΪ
ѱ绤˶֪߹װŲ֪ΪһΪй
ЭĵѯʣӦûش𾯲⣬þ
ѯģԱֳĬǲԺ;쿹硣
ִľ쿹±ΥġǱѯʵĵ˱ֳĬ
ҲȨ԰ɳһ֤ӵⶼִ
Χй½Ĺķʶ̫ΪԼûΥȷģ
׺ÿԺִйľԿϺʱͳ
ڴϺִйľġǲ˼ġ

ΪɳҲ֣ɳԾͰ
߹ؽҵֿԽϴΪҪ߰ؽң
һѸˣ߹ؽʱѱܣǿ
߹ؽҡǿ߹ؽʱпܰŪʹ
Ū˵ġѼҪբ־ֵĶƽɳ⳥Ϳ
Աɡ쿴¼Ϊִ첢ûΥԽȨ
ŶѵҪɣǶѱŪ˻ŪʹǳМcʵĲ

ɵʵӦþ۽ִʱǿΪһϡѵĸ
ĶΪ¾ûΥһпΪΥܾǾ
ٳٲȫϸڵԭҲ¼ȥԭ

ҪرָǾԷĵǿִġ˿ܻ
ǵǰһйΪӱ߷ֹͣѣ
ǿƷˮ¼¼ߵԺԺоĽǾģ
ΪִҲûԽȨ

ĹƵϳſִܾйʱǿִеľͷ
Ĺ߾ϰˣΪĺϷġй½Ϊ
ʶҲΪй½ķιܻΪǿִ
ΥģԲ˼ɲɳ¼񣬵һʹñ
¼ЩģˣɸĽͲͬΪʵй
ľ첿Լ;ڷʶϵĲԭ¡

ΪҵķôǷг¼
ľԺҪ󿪳ĶΪǺϷġ

Ȼ¼ΣҪȾڷͥϹȫ¼¼

¼ʵǲǷε⣬
⣬ǲӦðϮϮ֮ǰıʵ¼ϵġ
ͨϮľִȨ⣬й½Ӧô
ǿʶȨʶġ˳˵˵й̨һϲ̨
ǰͳˮⲻʱƨɡΥΪǲģ
й½Ȼ˺Ȳʣ֪½ķιȨʲô
ȡҲ˵޲׼Ļθһеû塣й½
뷨ҪȨҪкܴĲࡣ

صԭĿ˵һ䣬ʹƽ·ɳѿִʱΪ
ҲϮɡϮǰǷִȣ
ȫͬİǾԲԻģȻû˾
ˡҵĽϺмԺӦڻߺƽ·
ɳǷִİѱ˲ûߣǼԺӦ
ƽ·ɳԱĹߣɷԺǷִȣǵ
ǡϮǸİԲǣ뱾޹ص
ֻаȫиܳ˾ԡԺ
ԡ뱾޹صĸ׵ǲԳסһ
ġ

дʱõԭϺʦƼʦİ

7/29/2008

(XYS20080730)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys-reader.org)

ͬͷ˼᲻Ҫ׳

ߣbluesea

˷ƪ£˵ǲ֧ѵıΪͬѣͬ
ʲôҲ˵˵ϣϹǼ¶һ¡ûȥ
ģȥȥͣĳЩҪ˵ˣ

žôԶһδȥͣΪû𣿡
۵ĸǹ˲ѧᡣ

λֵͬڵ϶Ǿģţ
ϰ߾þǿɶġ

λѵǾ¶ģʵλѡʧ
޷ǾҪͬ˵ΪԼѡ

˵ͬ黹ǲͬ飬Ƿ˼ỹǲ˼ᣬ
ӦѣҥɣȻɻûκθݵ
ָԷ

˵Ǻ⣬ҧ˵¼٣ѵǿԷ
˵ϣȥȥѣҥ˵ĸⲻǳ·˽֪


ǻҪ˵ÿһɱ˷ֵͬģȷʵһǹɱ˵
˱ͬˡʷǧٸ̬ɱ˷жͬ
ǵģʵȻ˼ǱŰġһ
õƲĻΪǴѱ̫߳˲ѡ
оһѣѡʧάԼ

λڻһЩ˵ˣʵʻǺͿй
Ǻ⣬˾ҲǷĻңͲѵҪ
νġҥѣΪԼ׳ǲſ


ҲϣйдľڲõĵطҲЩ
ϺطԱΪ̰ͼþѹաҲϣܶط
⣬ͺͺһ㡣 ǽҪֵĲΪ˵û
Ҫ֣жϵıҵ岻ǿ԰еľ
ڵأǵڣ1춼ǻģֻҪ1ǶԵģ
ҲҪάΪӪ׼ǵڣά
ǵڣ

ǲˣҺ˵ǱԩҲ裬ȻҲ
ڡΪ裬Ҫȥɱ޹ѵҲҪ֧
жٱ̬ɱ˷ûܹ裿ϣûܹѵ
ҲҪͬޣǲǶˣҲú˵ǽֻҪû֤
ݣҾͲ۶ϣҶʲô̬ȡҶʲô
̬ȡΪҵ̬ȲܴҼԵ

ҵͬ鲻ãΪϧͬ顱ֵĺ壬ҵġ˼
ãΪҿΪ˼־;Բ˼ð
Ю˽ҵҲԲΪ̫ϧκ
ۻߴۡΪԹҧˣͰԼȥҧ  

ҪᣬҪԣңά
Բƫ˽ӪΪңΪҵ˵1û
Ҫ1 ҥԣҾ͸ֵûҪԼ
ߣͶȥͶЩɿⷢҵġӪȥ
ֻҪȥͷԣΪӪǰڴС﷢»
Ҳܲ

岻Ҫ׳ͬ顱Ҫ裬Ϊ˵ϲ
ʩʩڡ 

(XYS20080730)

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ѵԴ

ߣһ޳

ѵ⣬ҳķзԴޱЩǴ
಻壬ҲԡٳԣҴӸԵĽǶȿѵ⡣

ҵһλֳھ̣װĵ˳ǵײʿķ
ʡǱǿשͶ죬ͷԺͲ
ŵѡºǽµʱе
Ĭ񣬵е־塣ƶȷϳ֮ǰǰ꣬ʹ
ֳΪڱݺᵶȥһЩԱΪ
һӦΣ

ͬҵλֳĶҲҵֶһλ;˾ÿγ
Ҫ׼üǧǮ֮ûзΪʲôҪ˵
ȱ뷸糬أؾζⱾΣ췣ʱûɣ
ҪΪʲôͻὫ߼ȻһɣЩס
ڳǿ󲻵Ϊĳײ
ˣҵֶӵһӦΣ

˭һ㣬ǣ飬Щȳһţ
һԼĿмȶķšǵļԼǸȴ뵽Ҳ
ˡ

(XYS20080730)

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йķɻ治һûƷ

ߣԽԽ

𸻣٣𾯣ƶΨԼĴǱ˵Ĵ
ֻԼûȱƣûе˼˵үǣĸ
30꣬ôرģġˡȴܵαߣϷõ
׷йķɣʺ治һûƷ

ɱ˷Ż׼֮ͽռ˵Ƹߵ㣬Ϊǲƽ
Ӧܵͬڸ֮ǰӦóǣ

һɱ˷ȻôڡӢۻ׷ԭԵۣй
ĲԿɼһߡ 

(XYS20080730)

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Ϊμɻ䵽Ϻ̨ȡ֤
԰ϺԺٻش1

ߣϼ

˾Ǵ֤ݡϺһλ͵ʦ˵ģ
׷ԣˮԣȨԹ˾ζϰƷȫ
ֻͬҪ˭Ʒȣ˭ں˭˭ģȻǺǰ
ߡλʦȻûܳΪǵĴˣһ˼·
ˣӡΪ̡룬ֻҪǸķ٣ڴ֪ʶȨ
ʱѭЩ򵥷򣬶ϰ˼·ھͻγɣоһҲӡ

˾Ĺȼʶˣоġ۽öˣ
Ϊĺ֮ڣٲĵطԺҲǴġġϲǣ
ˣǱ֪ʶȨ˾ʽӹ졢ȫ
ϺʱʺӹĻƷ٣ϺһԺ顢Ƽ
ࣻϺԺٻӷɣһףְ
Ϻ棺ɽһͥ۴ˣʱ
ӺĶλԺɽĹƣϺڶŭɶ
Ԯͥûˣ̸һ˶̸ͥϱ
ʾû˵ɽҲû˵ɷǳǻơ
Ȼ׼ˣپȻӮ

оʵ̫ˣ֤˾аҪݣڴר
˾Ǵ֤ݡǵķộǵ֤ݵġʲô
֤ݣЩԶΪ֤ݣЩԣ֤ʲôҪôȡ֤ô
֤ʲôҪȡ֤йδʽӹ죬й
ѻʽӹ죬ڡ֤ݵѧʡƶϸµķɹ涨գ
ͿɷָȨķ٣Υġҿ

л񹲺͹Ϸ£֤ݣ 

֤ݱ֤ʵʮ

˼ϴ͹ԭռ֤ݣԺ
ΪҪ֤ݣԺӦռʮ 

ԺȨйصλ͸˵ȡ֤йصλ͸˲þܾ
ʮ

ԭڷͥµ֤ݣһٶʮ 

־ݡԺ֤ݵɹ涨

֪ʵ֤֤ھ/һ

ΪԺЧĲȷϵʵ֤֤
ھ/ģ

ժ¼ļӦӦԣöȡ壨ʮһ
 

֤Ӧڷͥϳʾɵ֤ʮ

ԺְȨռ֤Ӧͥʱʾʮһ

ֻб˳֤ݵģŲ֧֣ʮ


һءְȨĹ֤֤һ֤
ʮ/һ

ԭʼ֤ݵ֤һڴ֤ݣʮ/

ȵȡ

趨⼸ǽ׷13о
13㣩 

1Ϻβˡ֪ʵԡ
ͷĿֲ̣ʸ෴ɽȨʵ
ȥú׷飬ʹо鱾ĩãͨƪɷΧԵġ֮
Ҳ¶˷ʧ̬ԡĻ2
ζṩԭʼ֤ݴֱܾģ3βö
ԭʼ֤ݣб棨ɽû֤ݣ4β
α֤α֤5Υʷԭĳ
ϮԡΪūĸס1979֣ȴ1955Ҫ˵
£Ψ԰ӣ6ζȡ壬ǵ֤½
֤ͥʣװģ޷ݡԴġ϶
ˮԡˮԴˡлԪء֮7
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֤ݣȷϱбӽ칫˾ɽַ
Ȩʵͺ൱֤Ҳһ˾ĻΪ
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200787գ

(XYS20080730)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys-reader.org)

ڡҽѧ

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γɡܵʽרáƵ£ǹܵĿ
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3	˴ŹԭӺڴųеĹףԼ65׺֥ԭ
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6	ļƵʷΧ˴ŹЧӦƵ65׺֥ҵ
ߵƵΡЧӦһ漰ƵθߣǺϵĹⲨƵΡ
Ҳһ㡣ìܵרֻ˵ﲨƵԶ
ڳƵΧߵƵгƵһָ100-1000׺֥Ƶ
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Ҳʵʵ˵αعŪ飿ע1=1000ǧ

7	δһҵ·êˡҰҷġӹ
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֣ýܲŪǧͶʣ
ѧоԺ棿

(XYS20080730)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys-reader.org)

ϾƾѧѧԺԺʿشϮ֮
ڶ¡ó͹׼Ĺϵʷݽ۷Ϯ13
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ĵ48ҳ3ε1-9ĵ50ҳ31-7С
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199612913գ¼ٿWTO״β飬
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ģ
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ͬ

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1999122գͼٿĵW'I'0ϣ͹׼
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ڶڡй͹׼ó׹ҹ鼰ʵʡϮʵ

ӡ

ĵ51ҳ152ҳ1-5ܳ3ĵ95ҳ41-6
֡עȫͬ

ģ
νָһ߹ʵĹҵҽԵƷ
ЩƷ֮ΪڹûṩĹʡ漰Թ
ıͨ۵ĺȱ͹ڹܹԶһг
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١

ܳ3ģ
νָһ߹ʵĹҵҽԵƷ,
ЩƷ֮ΪڹûṩĹʡ漰Թ
ıͨ۵ĺȱ͹,ڹܹԶһг
ļ۸ڹҵ۲Ʒ,ͽ⡰˽ڹ,ʽ
ʹʧȥҵ,ʹڹ͹ʺʹ۸ṹо


˵עܳ͢3עͬ͢[]??˹:ó
Ͷʡսʱķɻ,㶫1998,
103ҳ

ĸӡ

ĵ54ҳڶε5-13ܳ3ĵ97ҳ3ȫͬ

ģ
1996꣬OECDһΪ͹׼óסĵ鱨ָ,޷֤
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֤ع͹׼ṹɲƽóΪóģʽ,ʷ
͹׼Ĳ̶,صҪ͹ģ
áʵ֤оٴα,ʵʹʵͶԽɵس̶Ȳ
ȫԵĹͬϵ,2080,ʵЩع͹׼
ҵʵʹˮƽЩعʱ׼Ĺҵٶȸ졣෴Ҳû
ʲô֤ܱЩ͹׼Ƚϵ͵ĹϵĳڽЩ߱׼
Ҹá͹׼ó׹ҹҲȱۻʵݡûע
ͣ

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1996һݵ鱨ָ,޷֤Ͷ׼ȫóױ(Ͷ
)ʵʵϵ,ͬҲ޷ʵ֤غͶ׼ṹɲƽó
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صҪ͹ģáʵ֤оٴα,ʵʹʵ
Խɵس̶ȲȫԵĹͬϵ,2080,
ʵЩغı׼ĹҵʵʹˮƽЩغı׼Ĺ
ٶȸ졣෴,Ҳûʲô֤ܱЩͶ׼Ƚϵ͵Ĺ
ϵĳڽЩ߱׼ĹҸá

˵1.ɾܳ3ע͢ߣμ:ó,ɳ
1999,344ҳ
2. Ľܳ3ĵĵһƵ

ڡ͹׼ó׹ҹԱϮʵ

ӡ

ĵ58ҳ5ε2-4С6759ҳ1-3гϮڲĵ152ҳ
345֡

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ϣó׺漰͹Ȩ⣬͹Ȩıˮƽƺó
޹ءʵϣ໥ãϢϢء
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ӾѧϽͶһַǳҪҪأͶԴ
ֱӹϵó׵Ҫ⡪Ʒ۸Ʒ۸ĻƷĳɱ
Ʒɱɱ۳ɱ߶ͶɱͶɱ
úָάͶһбҪã٣͹Ȩ
ĸߵֱӰЩõĸߵ͡˵չˮƽĲͬ
뷢չйڹ˹ʡԼ˵Ľѵ÷
Ų죬ֲ͹Ҳ˸ͶɱϵĲ졣ûעͣ

ڲģ
,ó׺漰͹Ȩ,͹Ȩıƺó޹,
ʵ໥,ϢϢء
(һ)͹Թó׵Ӱ
ӾѧϽ,ͶһַǳҪҪ,ͶԴ
ֱӹϵó׵Ҫ⡪Ʒ۸Ʒ۸ĻƷĳ
,Ʒɱɱ۳ɱ,߶ͶɱͶɱ
ľúָάͶһбҪ[5],͹Ȩ
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뷢չй͹ȨϴŲ,ֲһҪ
ͶɱϵĲ졣

˵ע͢ڲע[5]ȫͬ
ע͢٣۾óеͶ⡷ڡйѧ
19964ڣ96ҳ
ڲע[5]۾.óеͶ[J].й
ѧ,1996,(4):96.

ӡ

ĵ60ҳ1-261ҳ1-3ڲĵ152ҳ2ε1-6
֡עȫͬ

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ѧҵһ¿ǣó׶һľлãȻ
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ڹǳڹӮõ涼ʧԹó׿ʹ
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̶ȵĴСӰķȴ[6]ó׻ӮҺ,۽
ǳڹ,Ӯõ涼ʧ,Թó׿ʹ(
ڹڹ)Ӿ,Ӷһľø[7]

˵ע͢٢ڲע[6] [7]ȫͬ
ע͢٣չʤȱ±ʾѧ廪ѧ2003
3µ1棬83ҳڣ[]ѧԭеҵ磬2003
8µ1棬154ҳ
ڲע[6]չʤ,.±ʾѧ[M].廪ѧ
,2003.83.[7] [].ѧԭ[M].еҵ,2003.154.

߸ӡ

ĵ61ҳ1ε4-5ѽĵ42ҳͬαע

ģ
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ߴµĻᣬǵĸۡ

ѽģ
зչָ,һ廯ƷʱԱĹ
ͶߴµĻ,ǵĸ, 

˵ֻͬע͢ѽĵ42ҳѽĢ
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12ڡ
ӳѽĲɾתער

ڰ˸ӡ

ĵ61ҳ23γѽĵ42ҳ1-51-2С42ҳ
5-8С

ģûעͣ
һڷ˵ӷչйҽڲƷԵĽͳɱ
棬ڽͶܼͲƷ۸ŻҵṹԷչйҵ
Ҳ˴ľҵᡣ˫ó׾Ϊ30Ԫ
ҵᡣ
ڶڷչй˵ڵӴٽչйҹˮƽߣ
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ѽģ42ҳ1-51-2У
(1)ڵӴٽչйҹˮƽ,ƶء
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˵,ӷչйҽڲƷԵĽͳɱ,
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ھŸӡ

ĵ61ҳ13-9ڲĵ152ҳ11-8ȫͬ

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չйҺ󣬻ߵɲҵܱţչйҵ
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Ǽ˵;ҵһĲӰ졣ˣѶѷָȫ
Ͷгϣ˻ͶܼͲƷ۸ĽͶʧҵ
ʸ͵Σաûעͣ

ڲģ
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ĵ62ҳ21-37-9ڲĽ֣152ҳ1
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ˣΪ˻ȡ⽵͹׼пܷû
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עۣ͢ó֯Ͷķɷڡ
ó⡷19979ڣ51ҳ
ڲע[8].ó֯Ͷķɷ[J].ó
,1997,(9):51.
2. ó֯Ͷķɷó⡷
19979ڣ51ҳöεǣͶɱó׼ƼۻƷ
۸ŽϵڽͬƷеȼ۽Ĺó׶ԣó̻ȡ
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ĵ62ҳ1ڲĵ153ҳ1һֲ

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˵ȫͬעȫͬ
ע͢ݣ[]ѧԭеҵ20038µ1
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ĵ63ҳ1ε1-464ҳ1Ρ񡢵31-2
ĵ5ҳ23-23֡עͬ

ģ
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ĹƣԲȦע13,Ӵ,ʱֵҰ,ݺȫ,ܵ
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Ա                                 ̫

ӱǿԿ,ͶҪСͬڵʱ,
,ʮ״ҲдĸĹۡ

˵1.ע͢ԲȦע13ǣ1975¹ȡ
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3. ԲȦע14͵һע[8]ɾ
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ĵ65ҳ41-9гĵ6ҳ2֡

ģûעͣ
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˺󣬷ȫ򻯵Ŀ˳ϯ˷ҵĶᣬ׶ء
ʢ١˹ߡǶ˷ȫ򻯴ʾ
ȫΪ,ȫֻЩ˾,ΪʱȫΧɵذ
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ȱ͹Ӿƶֻȫ˶ˡ
ȫ˶ͼʱģȫ򻯿,ǡʢ
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㼣ȫΪ,ȫֻЩ˾,Ϊʱȫ
Χɵذ͹ṩ˱,ȫ򻯼Ӿƶֻ,ó;÷չ
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˵ע[14]ǣ.ܾ練ȫ˶
[N].ʱ.2003-06-12. ûע͵ĴǳϮľ
Ϯġ

(XYS20080730)

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𸴡ϾƾѧѧԺԺʿشϮ

𾴵ķ

ã

Ǵڡ˿Ͽҵºļʹࡣ

ҹְϾƾѧѧԺ϶İ꣬ѧԺ
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ڵӰ޼ԼΪˡѸӵ¹
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ҵĲʿõѧߵĳɹ󲿷ֶעҲһ
ЩΪûעģд˲οסѧߵĳɹ
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ڽĿйп˷̬ϸѧ淶볭Ϯ
Ҿܾܡ

ллѣ

İ

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𸴡пԺѧоŻоԱڹڿαݡ

ߣ

ʿã

˿ұȽϲһվҿˡаͷ08.7.29
µۡҾãй߲Ӧ˲ظ˿ñӡ
ǵĴ𸴡

1.1ͼ9a9b2ͼ7a7bͬȣ߻
PtRuIr/C,PtRuNi/C,PtRu/CͬƱģƪеĲ
㲻ֱͬ𿼲IrNiļPtRu/C߻ԵӰ켰PtRu/C 
ǵĶϸ鿴е⼸ͼԼԭʼͼ󣬷
ڵͶʱPtRu/CXPS Pt4fRu3pͼһ9a,bΪPtRuNi/C
ӦXPSͼ2е7a,b˻Ӧ˵ٰɣο
еĽҲһ磺1PtRu/CXPSΪPt
Ϊ69.81Page 474,line13,2еPtRuNi/CĽΪPt
ԺΪXPS 63.12Page 7833, line 4

ͼ⣬Ǹлߵѡǽ־ϵи

2. ƪظ֮12ͼ1bȫͬ 
12ͼ2bͬ.жPtRu/Cգ
룬㲻ͬ²ͬĶӦİɣ磺12
ͼ1b2bPtRu/C TEMΪġ

ϣǵĿйڷǰһ㣬һ㡣û100% 
ǰҪ۴ñӡ

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ٺʥѧĹ

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ǰӣһȵġʡʱͷ
С԰ѧطһЩĺòƳһ𡱵º
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ͷ˽֪ԷǶԵĵ£ôԼõ
ѡʱܹԼǴ𣬵ȷһ
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ⲻͷˣͷС԰ѧͷ
վˣһȵġʡģ
һЩʹģͷûʲôϵ¡ͷ𰡣
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ΪѧͬϡΪ˳Ŀ갡

ͷǡٶʿȰԼļٴòð򣬰ɲ


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ִ¥ſǶͼ



ݶ񱨱http://news.qq.com/a/20080729/000204.htmʡ
عԴְ칫¥ڴĵذǶһ˶ĺɫשͼ
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ţֵôС֡Ǿ̲סҲۼ䡣ҵĹ۵ǣôͳ
Ļڸǲ˷⽨ŵʵŵΪӦֹ

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ţкܶ۵ΪлͳĻ裬Ҫúô
УðͼӡֽǮվΪˣͬ
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ȻΪ㣨ǲŵĹԱԼҹ
ͼֻҪӰˣҶٶСΪΪţð
ͼװΣֻǻĵҪŵĹ󣬾
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ܿϡͿ͵͵˽ġаͼӣֻ
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ƤࡱǸʲôҩ

ߣ

˿в׼дġܶҽרҡᵽƤࡱ
˵䡣

Ƥࡱ˵˿ϣҽã˲֪ʲô
ҪɷǣƤ()Ѫࡢסػơ顢ʯࡢ¯ʯ


ע⣺ɷеƤ()ҩеƤ֣ʵϾ
νҩƵĴƤѪࡱָ˷ӹ֮ҩ˵
Ѫ̼鲹Ѫʯࡢ¯ʯɱ״ųӲ

䷽ͿԿҽ룬ҩӦáƺĴ
ƤͿڴòտڡ棬Ŀɿڴ

룬ΪβƤţƤ̫ͨأҴƤ˴
ʵɸ˸ظС

˿οϣҽѧѶ˵䡣

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ͬ±ҽ

ߣƼ

ϴ֮,ͬ±ҽ½:)

۵λͬ,һλǰʮĵҵ,ѧĻ
ʵ,Ҿ"߷"ĿԻȽϴ.һλǶʮһͳĳɴ
(˿Աҵ),ñȽ,Ҳв߷Ŀ:)

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һָҩĶò,"ҩֶ"˵.ʹ,Ҷ
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Ǳһ.,е,Ȼǿ,ǲԳҩ:)

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һλ͸˼,λһ˵"ӾǸƭ":)
ԭ:),㿴?ʵû,֪Ĺ۵,
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ִú,Ϊ˵Ĳ,Ҳ.

ҽı,ǵ͵˾ϰ۹.Ծһ,ھ֤
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֤.

Ƿȥһ,Ҳٲʲô֤.ʵ,֪ҽ
ô.ΪҽǶԵ,Ҹ֮ǰ,û뵽ҽ
.

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α.ڵĽ,еҵĹ۵,Ǻǿ,ǲܾҩ.

ܽı,ҾڻҪռҽҩĹ۵Ƿǳѵ.ܶ
˲,ֻҪ־ΪȻ.֪
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ЩĻ̶ȵһЩ,.

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û˻һ.ҩİȫ,ϴȱ,÷ҽ
ҩĹ۵.

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ӭ

ߣ

иѣƽʱϲĵйĻ⡣

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˵ǸݣôȥôģȾô

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ҲΪ˽ңҵĻþ档 

ҶԹʱᣬԼͬʱֵ˺ѣ
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ҶԣйǷһҳǹȥʱֳѣĽ

2001713գ³ɹϢʱڹڣͬѧǾۻᡣ
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ȻǱˡǮ࣬ΪÿҪ˰һָ
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Ǳ룬Ҳᵣծ׸ôģ
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Сʱʵļ

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ϵļ㲻֪ɽܷͬҴдɵĶãϣɽ
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ȸл¿ķ굶ָ˵ûЭĻǴģȷ
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Ƕʣǰʣһϣ¿ķ굶ٲһ
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ϵЭڽ̿ͨͳѧֶڸۣû
ɡ뿴ĵΡȻ˵Ҳδضԣӭٷ

(XYS20080730)

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ڸ𸴰¿ķ굶

ߣ

    ¿ķ굶ڡԻҰèyuffieۡѰСйظ
λظУڡɡ͡еļ˵ɣڴ˱ʾ
лǶԼĴ𸴣

    ԭĶһЩʵĶ壬Ӧ©Ϊ1-80%鱨ʡ

    ڡԤж׼ôһλBut 80 per cent accuracy 
also means that the forecasters make mistakes on 20 per cent of 
occasions-so that they'll wrongly forecast rain on 20 per cent (18 
trips) of the 90 dry trips.©ʻʵ20%޷õ
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ѡ

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accuracy80%޷õʵġ

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Ļ׼ںбģ

(XYS20080730)

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ԤϷ

Ѱ

һѧ⣬ǵҪݱ㲻еۣȤλС
šѱ˹۵㳭дһ飬ȻѴҶѵһͨ¿ķ굶Ҳý
ˣ㿴ͷյòáǣҿ
ͷΪʹȷҲûдģ˵㻹ܸء

ãдĻáʡʡ
ѹ¼׼ȷʡʡȴʣҲ֪Ƿ淶
Ȼָܹҹ淶ĸʲôǾ͸мˣ˵ƣ
һ治һ죬νƣרҵרҵ¶һֵˣ˵
˻ǸơȥƣһǫɷݣҲ
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ȷģƽνĸʣָʣPrior Probability
ĸʣλWootָڴ˱ʾл
(Posterior Probability)ָʡ

ʣα仯һʱηֲһ죬
ĸʣָĳһ죬֤ĸʣͬһ

ʣҲǵĸʣƵĸʣʵǳʣ
ֻǼ˵λģ˵ΪλĻʣСʱΪλĻ
ʵȡ

ѹԭн͵ùˣΪ˱仯
ͬһġʡڱҰиѹ֪˰
Ϊʲôָ㣩߶ʵĶԸûҪΪʲô

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ְPֱ꣩ӰP磩ˣԵ0.26P
꣩ʡֲԭģжϢ
P磩P꣩

Ҳɵù˵㡣ĶϢҪ˼ٶʵ
Ҫн֪Ϊʲôͷô

ټBayesʽ㣺

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϶磬꿿סԭеǻ϶׼ȷǰν
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0.86

籨꣬׼ȷʲͲôÿСʱ25%һСʱ
ڵбʱP죩0.73*0.2518%

ֽ̿ʽļûģΪ¼Щ
ʼõĸǿסģԣǰһСʱԺһСʱ
мԤֵѧԤ϶õĲǼ򵥵ĸʼ㡣

۶Դǰ˿۵Ǵ˵塣
ǰԤ׼ȷʶΪP𣩣¼ٶ

P𣩣0.5%P𣩣99.5%йԤרҵô
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P14%P86%ҪĻ3%
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P𣩣1-13.65%86.35%
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¿ķ굶Ԥ׼ȷȴԵؽָͣĲλԤԺ
ʿΰԤ׼ȷ80%ϵģ۹ûѽϧ׼ȷ
޼ֵ86%׼ȷʣҳңȶĥϸԤ׼
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PP*P/P
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86.33%ȡɵģ

Ҽǵ۸һ˵Ԥԣ׼ȷҪԤ
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¼ĻԶȻʸߣЧΪΪ̫ࡣ

ǻԽһǼ裬̹ԺʿйԤ⼯Ź
˾ĸλֻ£еĻ0.5%Ҫ50
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׼ȷж죿νϷ˻棬˶ͬҲٴ
ص¿ķ굶ļٶϣСʱΪλԤֱ80%׼ȷ
Ϊϧ׼ȷûмֵΪи֪ʶˣһ
ʱԤ׼ȷʸߴ90%һǶ˵ԭе80%׼ȷȣ벻
ָСʱΪԤ׼ȷȡ

ٴθлWootѵҵĸʦų׼ͥҵ

(XYS20080730)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys2.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys-reader.org)

ظǶѰ

joysong

ѰԿѧѧҸоCCTVһãǸص
Ĳ񣬿ԵнͿԸԼ㶮Ļ
һģ㿴Ѿ̧ˣܹȥʱܵ٣
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ҿԸ㣬ˡ 

Ȼһ仰дʲô 

(XYS20080730)

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½ˮĿ

20080730յһƾձ 

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λǰ˹㽭弯Ŷ³ԴԼĵδҵ
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ݳƳ½ֻǷ700Ԫͣ ֻʣ60ƽ׷

200807300ִ

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½ǣڡˮ͡Ŀϵľ޴Ͷйء2000꣬
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дԳƣ½ĿǰѾĴҡûȨһ
֤ʵ

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